RYAN PREDICTS IDOL WINNER

One of the best pieces of advice I have ever been given is that one should never make decisions when they are in the state of infuriation. Last week I was mad…really mad. Unemployment is at 8.1%, CitiBank stock is selling for under $1, my condo is now worth 74 cents oh and worst of all, contestants on Idol are no selected by viewers. Instead they are cast by judges and producers.

I was going to perform an exercise of woulda-woulda-shoulda-coulda to see how this top 13 (as I predicted 13 would be chosen) would shape up if the format was different. This complete and utter screw up cost us the talents of Mishanova, Casey Carlson, Jackie Thon, Anne Marie Boskovich, Ricky Braddy and the comic stylings of Nick Mitchell. I’m no longer looking back. I’m now looking forward. I’m anxiously awaiting to see how we, the American viewers, may get screwed again. Until that happens, I’ll lay out my

TOP 13 ODDS

Like Simon Cowell, I am not completely basing my opinion on singing alone. Why would I do that for a singing contest? I am basing my odds on likability, moxey, age maturity and singing diversity (i.e. Some people can sing R & B, some can do Rock “N” Roll. Most can’t do both)

Michael Sarver (age 27) ODDS - 300-1

Nice blue collar family guy that is lucky to have made it this far.

Matt Giraud (age 23) ODDS – 281-1

Much more suited for cruise ship lounge sing-a-longs.

Scott Macintyre (age 23) ODDS - :…::. (that’s 240-1 in braille)

Lets face it, he is a nice singer but it does help ratings to have a blind guy as a contestant. I think we all saw that coming since his average audition in round. The piano buys him a few weeks.

Jasmine Murray (age 16) ODDS - 84-1

The good news she’ll make the idol tour. The bad news is that being young and cute can only get you so far (see Punky Brewster, Webster and Gary Coleman).

Alexis Grace (age 21) ODDS – 75-1

I’m not here to make judgments but wait…I am here to make judgments. Besides Fantasia Barino, Idol Moms typically don’t do very well in this competition. Alexis Grace seems like a nice, pretty and humble gal but teenage pregnancies is the wrong idol message to be sending to our idol kids.

Jorge Nunez (age 20) ODDS – 62-1

I want to thank those of you who recognized how smart I was to select him in the top 13. The show needs a little Latin flavor.

Megan Joy Corkery (age 22) ODDS -50-1

I know another Idol Mom but here’s the difference between her and Alexis…Megan is really hot (minus the mural on her arm). Piece of advice for MJ. Some women look good sleeveless (I.E. Michelle Obama). Her expressive art may turn some people off. Plus try not to overexpose the oops baby in the crowd and you’ll be fine….for awhile.

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Kris Allen (age 23) ODDS 40-1

This guy jumped out of nowhere. He was not featured much in early Idol episodes. He may be the one contestant that Idol Producers weren’t counting on emerging from the Top 36 format. I feel like he is one of the few that we got to send through. He may be a Chris Richardson kind of guy. Women will probably love him and that gets you far in this show.

Adam Lambert (age 26) ODDS 27-2

The first openly gay contestant in the Top 13. This Broadway show stopper is going to make a nice run in this competition. When he is thru with idol, expect him to make a run as Dr. Frank N Furter in the next big production of The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

Anoop Desai (aka Anoop Dog) (age 21) ODDS 10-1

Seriously, is there anyone more likeable in this competition? He reaches across all demographics. Gals love his geekness, geeks love his coolness, cool people love his….wait cool people don’t watch idol (except me). He is fun, he is diverse and he is destined to sing a duet by seasons end with the original Dog named Snoop…Foshnizzle.

Lil Rounds (age 24) ODDS 13-2

She has got a very catchy name. Its fun to say. Ok stop saying it now. Every season we have a power singer who comfortably finds their way to the Whitney Houston, Mary J. Blige, Alicia Keyes songbook. My question is, how will she do on Bon Jovi and Barry Manilow-like theme nights?

Allison Iraheta (age 16) ODDS 6-1

Officially the youngest contestant on the show (Jasmine has her beat by 1 month). So why am I predicting greatness for this gal. I have two reasons.

1. Red Heads have more fun
2. Idol premonition. Like George W. I’m going with my gut. She has just enough to take her to the final week of this competition. I’m going out on a limb for this gal. At 6-1, I can’t say it’s the best value bet but I am saying that big things are in store for Allison.

Danny Gokey (age 28) ODDS 4-1

Rule number 1 in predicting idol is that the favorite never wins…except this year. Here is the one piece of advice I’d give him. I know it sounds shallow but it is the truth. We understand the tragedy of his wife dying. It’s a terrible thing to happen to anyone but if he overexposes the back story it may backfire. To his credit, he has not done that much. In today’s economic times, people tune into idol for escapism and we don’t want to cry. His singing and personality alone has gotten him the respect he deserves. He can sing any song and word is that he can also play the piano. He has a lot of intrigue to him and his looks are already being compared to Robert Downey Jr. I pronounce Gokey is our Season 8 winner. The only thing left to wonder is how fast Danny Gokey starts marketing his glasses.?

Good Luck To All

American Idol...More Like Producer / Judge Idol

Where do I begin? Lets start by saying that I am an Idol Geek. I’ve watched every episode of every season (except season 2 when I was too deeply involved in a torrid love affair with a German trolley worker named Hannah Schmitz who enjoyed being read too but that’s a story for another time). I now pronounce that with the monstrosities and blatant manipulative tactics of Idol Executive Producers, the show has now officially jumped the shark.

Let’s not misconstrue my declaration of shenanigans. I will still watch and analyze every note rendered by our Fab 9 of contestants (soon to be our dirty dozen. Our some conspiracy theorists believe we may have a bakers dozen this season. I’ll explain that scenario later). Let’s explore why we should all be losing sleep and forking the yards of Idol Producers.

The TOP 36 format is a complete and utter disgrace and a terrible display of anything that can representative of fairness. The Wildcard round is a joke and although they are all talented singers, Danny Gokey, Adam Lambert and Lil Rounds were all advanced to the top 12 by back stories, air time and singing in the coveted pimp spot (i.e. last to sing in each of the last 3 weeks). As opposed to other contestants with limited airtime, zero backstory, who end up singing early in the night and being forgotten.

Simon justified the wild card round by citing that contestants are deserving of a second chance. I agree with that sentiment but in a TOP 24 format, they would have all likely had been given a second chance and even a 3^rd chance. Let’s review why. In a TOP 24 format, we make finalists earn a spot into the top 12 by performing well 3 weeks in a row. In a Top 24 format, we watch Seacrest advance contestants. As opposed to saying “you didn’t make it.” Now these second-chancers have their fate held in the hands of judges not the American public. Very undemocratic.

Anyone with a half of a brain can figure out the eliminations based on hoe Seacrest was calling his groupings. In other words, when you have 1 spot left on the stool and you ask 3 contestants to stand up while 2 others are still seated, you know that those who are standing have just essentially been given their fate before Seacrest stretches out the manufactured suspense. It’s dumb, it’s insulting to our intelligence and it makes me angry. It’s obvious that the judges and producers have essentially hand picked 6-9 contestants that they like and fast tracked them to the Top 12.

Let’s also dig deeper into this so-called wild card round. Is there anyone reading this blog (All two of you), who sees any relevance in tonight’s singing performances? Since it is Judges Selection, I am guessing that the performances will mean nothing as they have already decided who they want in this group. Some sources have said that each judge may each get 1 personal selection out of tonight’s 8 choices, with 4 judges that would get us that Bakers dozen that I eluded to earlier or best yet, how about another sing off to secure that 12^th spot. Kind of like a play-in game in the NCAA tournament.

Here’s something else to ponder in this joke of a selection process, with the Top 9 consisting of 6 guys and 3 girls, like I predicted would happen a few weeks ago, I’m guessing that there is zero shot of having 3 guys emerge from tonight’s wild card round. That scenario would make our Top 12 ratio 9 guys and 3 gals. Demographically speaking that will hurt sponsorships and viewing demographics. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if we have 3 gals emerge tonight and even things up on the top 12 roster.

Did I mention how dumb, frustrating and unjust this process is to reaching your top 12. What’s next? Would it surprise you if in the top 12 competition, judges select a bottom 3 and we have to choose among that group each week? Thus changing every rule they possibly can until their favorite becomes our eventual champ then they try to sell us on how America picked that winner when infact this whole show has been manipulated and tampered.?

Shame on you Idol. I will follow this blog up with a tribute tomorrow to good singers in our top 36, who never stood a shot in advancing because of these dumbass rules. I will also set my odds for our top 12 performers.

I would like to say one last thing about Idol. Before you dispute my credibility allow me to reveal the results of my long-shot predictions. Before the 149 started in Hollywood week, I gave you 5 names. I said at least 3 of those 5 would make it to the top 12. Mathematically I stood around a 2% chance of nailing it right

1. Patti Roman – Lost in Hollywood Week
2. Rose Flack – Also Buckled Under pressure in Hollywood week
3. Case Carlson – Made Top 36. Probably fell victim to the new shameless Idol rules. Had she sang a 2^nd week then we could of got a better read on her.
4. Danny Gokey – Correctly Picked – Everyone could see that one coming.
5. Jorge Nunez- Correctly picked – I’m a genius.

Ok. So one last time, Idol Producers are tainting the American vote, Judges are getting the contestants that they want, Top 36 format is a complete travesty and….I am still addicted to this show. Go figureJ Can’t wait for tonight.