The season is now 1/3 over and the team is 26-28. Perhaps their
record is the only thing that realist fans and faux fans can each agree is
about right for this time of year.
Faux fans believe that this number over the
course of another 2/3 of season will translate to a roughly .500 record.
Logically that would make sense…The team is on pace for roughly 78 wins.
There
are a small minority of fans, myself included, that can look at this 26-28
record and say, Wow, not bad for a team with a history of being a stronger 2nd
half team. Truthfully, I personally expected they would be right at .500 at this juncture. I
believe they will be around 5 games above .500 at the halfway point, 8 or 9 above .500 by Sept
1st and 14 games above .500 at seasons end. Hence my prediction of 88 overall wins, which I am boldly sticking with.
Before we evaluate what has gone right and wrong thus far, we must
quickly review our season expectations.
Ruben Amaro Jr is / was a forever will be a terrible MLB GM. This is a factual
observation based on many observations but for sake of emperical evidence, I will give you, the reader, two concrete facts.
A. 1. The team has declined every year since he took
over as GM. (Lost WS, Lost NLCS, Lost NDS, Missed Playoffs).
B. 2. The Phillies have the third highest payroll in all of
professional sports and just about everyone agrees that this time as currently constructed is not strong
enough to win a championship anytime soon. Which means RAJ has overpaid on the
wrong players.
Its important to know these facts because
when everyone said our outfield stinks its not because RAJ belived in these guys, its simply because he ran out of money to fix
this issue. He had to fill out a rotation, get a 3B and find a good setup guy.
He knows his outfield stinks but he has money tied up in to many other misappropriated places.
My personal expectations of this years team is 88
wins and a wild card berth…Nothing more nothing less. I am banking on a manger, who may come
across as a country bumpkin, but winning a World Series and having a .558 win
percentage in his 9 years of Philadelphia makes me believe more in him then the current GM.
With that being said let’s review what has going right and what has going wrong.
WHAT HAS GONE RIGHT THUS FAR
1.
The Phillies have 3 legitimate All-Stars and 2
guys who on the cusp of being All-Stars
Highly Likely – Papelbon – Perfect in saves thus far with an era in the
low 1’s
Highly Likely – Lee – Our best starter with an ERA in the 2’s
Highly Likely – Brown – Top 3 in MLB in HRs and on pace for nearly 100
RBIS. Plus his average is now rising.
Likely – Bastardo – Quietly have a solid year as the 7th
inning guys. ERA in low 2’s
Likely – Kendrick – Needs a few more good starts to get back into the
discussion but is posting good numbers
2.
7th and 8th inning guys
have been pulling their weight. It’s the crappy clean-up guys who are getting
badly exposed in the bullpen. The Phils front of the bullpen has not been good but they aren't suppose to be good. If they were, they'd be starters or closers. Right?
3.
Delmon Young and Dom Brown have not completely sucked in
their defensive OF positions, which is the best compliment I can give that defense
4.
Pettibone has been a pretty nice surprise in the
rotation thus far
5.
The pitch Hitting is been surprisingly clutch
WHAT HAS GONE WRONG THUS FAR
1.
Forget about Reveres bat. That’ll come around
and he’ll get to where he was last year roughly .290 batting average. What I am
more concerned about is his defense. He has been completely brutal. Sure he has
made a few web gem catches but he has run terrible routes and misplayed many
routine balls. Even worse is his pathetic arm. It is literally the weakest arm
I’ve ever seen in the majors...Ever. Really it is outrageously bad. Most OF can throw
from the OF to homeplate on a bounce. Revere can barely throw from the OF to 2B on a bounce.
2.
Chad Durbin is bad. I made a mistake on his assessment and
thought he’d repeat his 2008 performance. Clearly I was wrong and he has
nothing left in the tank.
3.
Run Scoring – This stat, which is obviously the
single most important one in determining W/L’s shows that the Phils are 3 worst
in the NL. Despite what some believe and read this is not due to poor hitting.
Phils are middle of the pack in batting average
Phils are also middle of the pack in terms of HR
The lack of run scoring is due to two vital stats.
A.
Phils rarely walk, which negatively effects
their OBP
B.
Phils have hit into 41 double plays. This is one
of the worst in the league. As a matter of fact, Michael Young leads the league
in this stat and Ben Revere is not far behind. The irony is that Ben Reveres
speed is what allows him to leg out hits. His speed makes him very difficult to
double up, which makes his GIDP even more frustrating.
Don’t believe what you read, Phils do have a nice chunk of HR’s but many
are solo shots. This is because of items “A” and “B”
4.
The Phillies are really falling behind in the
Wild Card Race. Even if the Phils finish at 88-74 like I predicted, they may
still end short of the playoffs.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
It’s very simple math
The Phillies Win percentage from May 31st to the end of season
over the last 5 years is .574
This season they have 108 games remaining. If they win .574 of those
games that means they would finish the season with 87.99 games…right where I
predicted they would land.
BOTTOMLINE:
Yes, like many other MLB teams the Phils have been hit with injuries
(Chooch, Hallladay, Lannan, etc). Yes, the Phils middle relief stinks but
that’s because…
A.
The guys in the 5th and 6th
innings are not as important as the back-end guys. If you are counting on guys
like Horst and BJ Rosenberg to carry this team that means they are in the game
early, which means your starters let us down.
Yes, the GM depleted our minor
leagues when he traded for Lee….twice and other brilliant moves but experience
is what helps teams like the Phils excel in the 2nd half.
Phils will win 88 games this year, which puts them in a wild card mix.
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