Tuesday, March 1, 2011

MY IDOL ODDS FOR SEASON 10


It’s that annual time Folks. Since its getting harder and to keep up with the Oscars movies. I'm sticking with reviewing the 24 wannabes of American Idol'ers fighting for our phone votes and now online votes.

By the way, the new addition of voting online is part of an Idol producer conspiracy to brag about how many people voted this season thus creating the perception that Idol is bigger then ever. In reality, the interest / intrigue is probably up this season but like previous seasons the viewer numbers are dropping quicker than Charlie Sheen movie deals. To spare idol the embarrassment of poor television ratings, the producers added online voting to get them over the “numbers are dropping focus.”

The truth is that there are a few surprising things that I am enjoying about this season thus far. Let’s start with the judges. Randy Jackson has taken on the role of the mean guy. He seems to be more comfortable as the elder statesman and at times been brutally honest. Something he lacked as the 3rd wheel of past seasons He still doesn't have the charisma and wittiness of Simon Cowell but Randy’s minor faults are compensated by the addition and attention of Jennifer Lopez (J-Lo) and Steven Tyler. When I first heard that J-Lo and Tyler were taking over the judge’s chair, I was not enthralled nor excited about change. I am a traditionalist. It seemed like producers were putting a band-aid on the corpse of American Idol.

Now that we are a few weeks into this season, I find myself harping on each of their critiques. Quite frankly, they have a lot more credibility then Simon can ever offer. Simon provided wit but he never performed to sold out performances like J-Lo and Tyler. the corpse is now slowly resurrecting.

With that being said, every Idol has been taped thus far. That includes the performances tonight and tomorrow (Thursdays result show will go live). When the show goes live, we’ll be able to better determine if Tyler and J-Lo are solid judges or just easy to edit.

As for the talent. Let’s all just agree that this is the best group EVER. I know every year the judges hit the talk-show circuit and are forced to give the “best ever” rhetoric. But this year it's true for a definable reasons.

A. A. As I mentioned earlier, these judges actually know who can truly perform on stage. When you are a seasoned pop star, you have an eye for these sort of things as opposed to a record producer that sits at a desk with a CD player listening to endless El Divo tunes.

B. B. The extra rounds in Hollywood really weeded out the talent this season. In the past, they came to Hollywood with 150+ good accapella singers. This year they had 300+ and they really put them through the ringer. First the old “sing for me on stage with all your peers listening" round. Then the over-emotional/ grueling group performances. Then a Beatles Duet/Trio in 24-hour Vegas challenge. Then one more “sing for me in front of your peers” challenge.

Unlike past years, I agreed with almost all of the Top 24 Picks. My initial thought is that the boys are a bit stronger then the gals. I have 6 guys in my final 10 but I do have a female winning this year. My other thought is that because of the overall strength of the males, we lost 2 to 3 solid talents. Namely Fat Bieber (Jacee) and Gods Saint (In my opinion) Chris Medina. My Idol conspiracy Gods tell me that each of those guys had such a nice story and demeanor that it would have been a disadvantage to the other contestants to keep them on the show. How could you not cheer for a guy who stays faithful to his fiancée despite her being in a near vegetative state? It just breaks my heart.

As for predictions. I once again set the odds using a few set of Idol principles. None of them being a talented singer. Lets be honest. They are all quite talented at this point. Otherwise they wouldn’t have made it thus far into the show. Sure some may eventually crack under the pressure but when you set odds, you have to think of the people voting.

A. Soccer Moms – Who will be voting for the hottest guy –I’m not sure but I’m guessing Jovany Berretto since he showed us his Abs

B. Gays – Who will be throwing their support behind Brett Lowenstern

C. The Teenagers – Who stick behind other teens – Scotty McCreery and Thia Megia, Robbie Rosen

D. The other things to look out for are humbleness (So long Jordan Dorsey and Clint “Trendy Glasses” Gamboa). Hello Robbie Rosen, Casey Abrams and Naima).

E. Idol voters also like contestants who fly under the radar/ don't get a lot of early camera time due to lack of personality (Lee Deywze, David Cook, Kris Allen)

F. Storyline – From scrubbing the toilets (Naima and Lauren) to battling back from a motorcycle accident (Stefano), Julie Zorilla (Defecting from Columbia) and everything in between. Everyone wants a good story to go with their Idol.

So when you add voting demographic +likability+ under the radar personalities+ good storylines. You have to put the odds like this:

Jordan Dorsey – 250:1

Kendra Chantelle – 235: 1

Tatynisha Wilson – 200:1

Rachel Zivita (aka Girley Gaga) – 195:1

Karen Rodriguez – 170: 1

Clint Jun Gamboa – 150: 1

Lauren Turner – 100: 1

Tim Halperin - 60: 1

Haley Reinhart – 56: 1

James Durbin (The Straight Lambert)- 45: 1

Scott “Turn Out The Lights” McCreery- 87:2

Thia Megia – 40: 1

Lauren Alaina – 79: 2

Jovany Barreto – 30: 1

Jacob Lusk – 25: 1

Ashton Jones – 22: 1

Brett "The Jewish Carrot Top" Lowenstern – 20: 1

Stefano Langone – 18: 1

Naima Adepo – 16: 1

Robbie Rosen – 15: 1

Pia Toscano – 12: 1

Casey "Seth Rogen"Abrams – 10: 1

Paul McDonald – 8: 1

Julie Zorilla – 5: 1

As for my personal favorite 6;

Casey "Seth Rogen"Abrams - Who by the way was rushed to the hospital last week and was released so he could perform in Fridays taping.

Brett "Jewish Carrot Top" Lowenstern

Naima Adepo

Thia Magia

Julie Zorilla - Seems sweet and musically inclined

Robbie Rosen (We are both jews with the "RR" initials + our last names are similar


No comments:

Post a Comment